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Marlins chances in the NL East

In 8 days the full compliment of Marlins’ pitchers and catchers will arrive at the team’s spring training complex in Jupiter, FL to begin their quest for that elusive NL East crown. In the franchise’s 16 year history, they have never won the NL East division, although they’ve twice made the playoffs via the NL Wild Card. We all know the team’s playoff history, two trips, two World Series titles. So what chance do the Marlins have of building off their 84-77 record and 3rd place finish from last season?

The Marlins face a moutain the size of Mt Everest in their quest for an NL East crown. The NL East division may turn out to be the MOST improved division in all of baseball by the time all is said and done in 2009. The top two contenders, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, both rearmed themselves to chase a division title. Even the bottom feeders of late in the division are in search of redemption. The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves are making efforts to improve their squads in an attempt to avoid finishing last in the division.

The reigning World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies made sure to resign all their top talent in the offseason and will be no easier to deal with this year than they were last year. The New York Mets went on a spending spree to fix their biggest weakness, the bullpen. The Mets brought in the single season save leader in Francisco Rodriguez and got reliever J.J. Putz. Late game (and season collapses) may be a thing of the past in Queens with Rodriguez in the Mets pen.

The Washington Nationals may find themselves finishing somewhere other than 5th place in the NL East for once, though not much higher. The Nationals got Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham from the Fish, and the addition of Olsen in particular lends some experience and potential to their starting rotation. The Atlanta Braves, though not nearly as successful as their division opponents, have certainly been looking to spend the money to improve as they went after Rafael Furcal of the Dodgers (who backed out last minute to return to LA) and SP Jake Peavy from the San Diego Padres. The Braves’ starting rotation was rocked late last season and in the offseason. SP’s Tim Hudson and Tom Glavine may not return until late 2009 (if at all in Hudson’s case) and John Smoltz left town for the Boston Red Sox.

The Marlins for their part, resigned some key players, parted with others, and have yet to settle with others. Dan Uggla is arbitration bound at the moment, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, Matt Treanor, and Mike Jacobs have moved on, and Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco have signed contracts to remain in Miami for the time being. The Fish will be looking to do what they do every year, get the most out of youth as they possibly can. Youngsters Cameron Maybin and Gaby Sanchez are the top two players to keep an eye on, a lot will be expected of these guys, but how much can they deliver?

Odds are that come September we’ll see the Phillies and Mets battling for the NL East crown, but don’t count out your Fish. Sure, the Marlins don’t have the star power or bank roll of either team, but last September the Marlins were nipping at the heels of both teams and there isn’t much reason to think they can’t do the same this season. Sure, the departures of Olsen, Jacobs, Willingham, and Treanor looks demoralizing, but Olsen was inconsistent at best after May. Treanor and Willingham weren’t the most productive hitters and spent a lot of time on the DL. Jacobs was productive but strikes out, A LOT.

I would not be surprised to see the Marlins push the Mets and Phillies in the NL East race, finishing no worse than 3rd. The Braves and Nationals are likely to just switch spots in the standings, with the Nationals finishing 4th and the Braves 5th. At some point in the season the Marlins are going to have to step their play up to an All Star level if they want to overtake one or both of the top two teams.

 
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